Risk Score Development to Predict Postpartum Cardiovascular Disease Incorporating Pregnancy and Nonpregnancy Factors: A Canada-Wide Study
Authors' conclusion
The lack of sociodemographic, clinical, and health behavior information may have contributed to the low predictive performance of this score for postpartum CVD hospitalizations. However, this score derived from a national administrative database, provides an initial framework for estimating future cardiac risk, which may provide guidance regarding the need and intensity of postpartum CVD surveillance.
Study context
- Population
- Individuals aged 18–55 years without pre-existing cardiovascular disease (CVD), 1 randomly selected delivery per individual, Canada 2008–2021median follow-up 3.7 years [Q1-Q3: 1.6–7.9 years]
- Participants
- 1,992,972 individuals
- Predictors
- Pregnancy and nonpregnancy CVD risk factors
- Predicted outcome
- CVD hospitalization
Methodological detailsnational administrative hospitalization data, Cox proportional hazards models
- National administrative hospitalization data
- Cox proportional hazards models
Model performance
As reported in the abstract
within 1 year of delivery
| Test or model | LR |
|---|---|
| Standardized risk score <0 | 0.55 (95% CI: 0.49-0.61) |
| Standardized risk score 0 to <3 | 1.42 (95% CI: 1.28-1.57) |
| Standardized risk score ≥3 | 7.81 (95% CI: 6.69-9.11) |
LR
Standardized risk score <00.55 (95% CI: 0.49-0.61)
Standardized risk score 0 to <31.42 (95% CI: 1.28-1.57)
Standardized risk score ≥37.81 (95% CI: 6.69-9.11)
Further findings
CVD hospitalization
- C-statistic for the multivariable Cox model
- 0.669 (95% CI: 0.668-0.670)
Distribution of risk scores
- Risk score <0
- 59.3%
- Risk score between 0 and 3
- 39.1%
- Risk score ≥3
- 1.5%
Original publication
Risk Score Development to Predict Postpartum Cardiovascular Disease Incorporating Pregnancy and Nonpregnancy Factors: A Canada-Wide Study. JACC Adv. Published 12 January 2026. doi:10.
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