Arrhythmias & electrophysiology
Development and validation of the Atri-Risk Conduction Index risk score to predict risk of atrial fibrillation after typical atrial flutter ablation
Authors' conclusion
We developed and validated a risk score using atrial conduction parameters and clinical risk factors to predict AF after tAFL ablation. It stratifies low-, moderate-, and high-risk patients
Study context
- Population
- Patients undergoing typical atrial flutter ablation with no atrial fibrillation (AF) history, 2017–202281% male
- Participants
- 242 patients
- Comparison
- Derivation vs Validation
- Derivationn = 142
- Validationn = 100
- Outcome
- New AF after typical atrial flutter (tAFL) ablation
- Follow-up
- Median 330 days
Methodological detailsrandomly allocated derivation and validation cohorts, consecutive patients
- Randomly allocated derivation and validation cohorts
- Consecutive patients
Performance
As reported in the abstract
Predictors of new AF (multivariate logistic regressions (LogR), derivation cohort); ARCI score performance (validation cohort)
Validation
- AF with Atri-Risk Conduction Index (ARCI) score = 0
- 0%
- AF with ARCI score = 4
- 89%
Validation
AF with Atri-Risk Conduction Index (ARCI) score = 00%
AF with ARCI score = 489%
Odds ratio (95% CI)
pCS-dCS ≥70 ms
16.7(5.6–49)
pCS time ≥36 ms
4.5(1.5–13)
CHADS2-VASc score ≥3
4.3(1.6–11.8)
Further findings
AF incidence, whole cohort · median follow-up 330 days
- Developed AF
- 42%
Original publication
Development and validation of the Atri-Risk Conduction Index risk score to predict risk of atrial fibrillation after typical atrial flutter ablation. Heart Rhythm. Published 16 May 2024. doi:10.
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