Heart failure & cardiomyopathies
Disease Progression in Chronic Heart Failure is Linear: Insights from Multistate Modelling
Authors' conclusion
A multistate Markov chain model for patients with chronic HF suggests that the proportion of patients transitioning each year from a given state to another remains constant.
Study context
- Population
- Consecutive patients with chronic heart failure (HF) (median age 75 years, 61.3% men, 44% HFrEF)
- Participants
- 4,918 patients
- Outcome
- Disease trajectory (state transitions) predicted by a four-state Markov model vs observed
- Follow-up
- Model from first 2 years; observed at 3, 4 and 5 years
Methodological detailsfour-state Markov model, consecutive patients
- Four-state Markov model
- Consecutive patients
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
Predicted vs observed transition probabilities · 3, 4 and 5 years
Predicted transition probability hospitalization to death
0.11
Observed transition probability hospitalization to death at 3, 4, 5 years
0.13, 0.14, 0.16
Predicted transition intensity for rehospitalization
0.35
Observed rehospitalization probabilities at 3, 4, 5 years
0.38, 0.34, 0.35
Observational data: associations, not effects.
Further findings
Multivariable model with covariates
- Did not improve accuracy
Predicted average life expectancy
- Unadjusted model
- ≈10 years
- Multivariable model
- 13 years
- Observed mortality at 5 years
- 41%
Original publication
Disease Progression in Chronic Heart Failure is Linear: Insights from Multistate Modelling. Eur J Heart Fail. Published 6 August 2024. doi:10.
Composed by AI from the published abstract and checked against it. How Briefs are made →