Arrhythmias & electrophysiology
Enhanced prediction of atrial fibrillation risk using proteomic markers: a comparative analysis with clinical and polygenic risk scores
Authors' conclusion
A protein-based risk score, particularly incorporating NT-proBNP, offers superior predictive value for AF risk over traditional clinical and polygenic risk scores
Study context
- Population
- White British individuals without prior atrial fibrillation (AF), UK Biobank2,450 incident AF cases
- Participants
- 36,129 individuals
- Exposure
- Protein risk score vs HARMS2-AF and polygenic risk score for predicting incident AF
- Outcome
- Incident AF
- Follow-up
- Average 11.8 years
Methodological detailsUK Biobank, training set (70%) and test set (30%)
- UK Biobank
- Training set (70%) and test set (30%)
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
Prediction of incident AF (test set)
| Group | HR per SD increment | C-statistic | HR |
|---|---|---|---|
| Protein risk score | 1.94 (95% CI 1.83 to 2.05) | 0.802 | |
| N-terminal prohormone of brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) | 0.785 | 1.80 (95% CI 1.70 to 1.91) | |
| HARMS2-AF | 0.751 | ||
| Polygenic risk score | 0.748 |
HR per SD increment
Protein risk score1.94 (95% CI 1.83 to 2.05)
N-terminal prohormone of brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP)— not stated in the abstract
HARMS2-AF— not stated in the abstract
Polygenic risk score— not stated in the abstract
C-statistic
Protein risk score0.802
N-terminal prohormone of brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP)0.785
HARMS2-AF0.751
Polygenic risk score0.748
HR
Protein risk score— not stated in the abstract
N-terminal prohormone of brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP)1.80 (95% CI 1.70 to 1.91)
HARMS2-AF— not stated in the abstract
Polygenic risk score— not stated in the abstract
Observational data: associations, not effects.
Original publication
Enhanced prediction of atrial fibrillation risk using proteomic markers: a comparative analysis with clinical and polygenic risk scores. Heart. Published 4 September 2024. doi:10.
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