Arrhythmias & electrophysiology
Genomic Risk Prediction of Incident Atrial Fibrillation in Older Individuals Without Prior Cardiovascular Disease
Authors' conclusion
The use of an AF-PRS improves risk prediction of incident AF above clinical risk factors in older individuals without cardiovascular disease.
Study context
- Population
- Individuals aged ≥65 years without prior CVD or atrial fibrillation (AF) at enrolment into the ASPREE trial654 incident AF cases
- Participants
- 12,906 individuals
- Exposure
- AF polygenic risk score vs clinical risk factors and clinical scores
- Outcome
- Incident AF (HR per SD of AF-PRS; C-index)
- Follow-up
- median 4.5-years of follow-up
Methodological detailssecondary analysis of the ASPREE trial, sex-stratified analysis
- Secondary analysis of the ASPREE trial
- Sex-stratified analysis
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
Incident AF
AF-PRS
0.63 → 0.71
C-index, clinical factors → plus AF-PRS
CHARGE-AF
- HR
- 1.50
- C-index → plus AF-PRS
- 0.61 → 0.70
HARMS2-AF
- HR
- 1.32
- C-index → plus AF-PRS
- 0.57 → 0.65
Adjusted hazard ratio, per SD (95% CI)P value
AF-PRS
1.74(1.58–1.84)
P < 0.0001Per SD, as printed
- AF-PRS
- risk, highest vs lowest quintile 5.44-fold; P < 0.0001
- C-index increase with AF-PRS over clinical factors
- 8.2%
- C-index increase with AF-PRS over CHARGE-AF
- 9.5%
- C-index increase with AF-PRS over HARMS2-AF
- 10.5%
Observational data: associations, not effects.
Further findings
| Outcome | HR |
|---|---|
| Incident AF by sex (subgroup)AF-PRS · women | 7.09 |
| Incident AF by sex (subgroup)AF-PRS · men | 4.51 |
- Incident AF by sex (subgroup): interaction P = 0.007
Original publication
Genomic Risk Prediction of Incident Atrial Fibrillation in Older Individuals Without Prior Cardiovascular Disease. JACC Adv. Published 21 October 2025. doi:10.
Composed by AI from the published abstract and checked against it. How Briefs are made →