Heart failure & cardiomyopathies
Global burden of heart failure due to cardiovascular diseases, 1990–2021 and predictions to 2035 based on Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021
Authors' conclusion
The rising absolute number of HF patients indicates a substantial CVD-attributable burden by 2035, necessitating enhanced focus on individuals over 60, particularly those with IHD and HHD.
Study context
- Population
- Global population with heart failure (HF) attributable to cardiovascular diseases (CVDs), GBD 2021 data, 1990–2021
- Exposure
- HF due to ischaemic heart disease (IHD) vs HF due to hypertensive heart disease (HHD)
- Outcome
- Age, period and cohort effects on HF risk
Methodological detailsage-period-cohort modelling, Joinpoint regression analysis, Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model projections to 2035
- Age-period-cohort modelling
- Joinpoint regression analysis
- Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model projections to 2035
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
- Increased risk of developing HF started at age 60 and after the period 2005-2009
- Birth cohorts showed protective factors after 1955-1959
Observational data: associations, not effects.
Further findings
Age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR) of HF resulting from IHD · since 2019
- Annual percentage changes (APC) (gradual decrease)
- −0.74, 95% UI: −0.94 to −0.55, P < .001
HHD trend · after 2019
- APC in females (decreasing)
- −0.47, 95% UI: −0.74 to −0.20, P < .01
- Continuous upward trend in male patients, while decreasing in females after 2019 (APC = −0.47, 95% UI: −0.74 to −0.20, P < .01)
CVDs-attributable HF cases and years lived with disability (YLDs) · 1990 to 2021
- HF cases, 1990
- 20.1 million (95% UI: 17.3-23.4)
- YLDs, 1990
- 1.92 million (95% UI: 1.28-2.66)
- HF cases, 2021
- 45.6 million (95% UI: 39.7-52.7)
- YLDs, 2021
- 4.32 million (95% UI: 2.96-5.94)
- Increase in cases
- 127%
- Increase in YLDs
- 126%
- Increase in ASPR
- 3.74%
- Increase in age-standardized YLD rates
- 3.36%
Projected global HF population · by 2035
- Males
- 27.0 million (95% UI: 21.6-32.5)
- Females
- 21.5 million (95% UI: 16.8-26.3)
- ASPR stable
Original publication
Global burden of heart failure due to cardiovascular diseases, 1990–2021 and predictions to 2035 based on GBD 2021. ESC Heart Fail. Published 23 January 2026. doi:10.
Composed by AI from the published abstract and checked against it. How Briefs are made →