Independent external validation of the QRISK3 cardiovascular disease risk prediction model using UK Biobank
Authors' conclusion
QRISK3 had moderate overall discrimination in UK Biobank, which was best in younger participants. The observed CVD risk for UK Biobank participants was lower than that predicted by QRISK3, particularly for older participants.
Study context
- Population
- UK Biobank participants aged 40–69 years, recruited 2006–2010, without previous cardiovascular disease (CVD) or statin treatment
- Participants
- 403,370 participants
- Comparison
- Women vs Men
- Womenn = 233,233
- Menn = 170,137
- Outcome
- QRISK3 performance (discrimination, calibration) for first CHD, ischaemic stroke or TIA
- Follow-up
- 10 year risk
Methodological detailsprospective cohort
- Prospective cohort
Performance
As reported in the abstract
QRISK3 discrimination (Harrell's C-statistic)
| Test or model | Value | Harrell's C-statistic |
|---|---|---|
| Women | 9295 events | 0.722 |
| Men | 13 028 events | 0.697 |
Value
Women9295 events
Men13 028 events
Harrell's C-statistic
Women0.722
Men0.697
- Discrimination declined by age; C-statistic in all participants aged ≥65 years
- <0.62
- QRISK3 systematically overpredicted CVD risk, particularly in older participants, by as much as
- 20%
Original publication
Independent external validation of the QRISK3 cardiovascular disease risk prediction model using UK Biobank. Heart. Published 9 July 2023. doi:10.
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