New-onset atrial fibrillation as a predictor of cancer: Insights from a real-world dataset
Authors' conclusion
AF is associated with an increased risk of incident cancer, particularly in younger individuals.
Study context
- Population
- Patients with hypertension, T2DM or CAD without previous malignancy, aged 30–85 years, stratified by agematched 1:1 within 3 age groups
- Exposure
- New-onset atrial fibrillation (AF) vs no AF
- Outcome
- All-cause cancer incidence
- Follow-up
- Up to 15 years after AF diagnosis
Methodological detailspropensity-score matched, TriNetX research network
- Propensity-score matched
- TriNetX research network
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
All-cause cancer incidence, by age group
Relative risk
2.99
P < 0.001
30-50 years (n = 67,156 per group)
Relative risk
1.79
P < 0.001
50-70 years (n = 510,308)
Relative risk
1.49
P < 0.001
70-85 years (n = 882,729)
Observational data: associations, not effects.
Further findings
Cancer-free survival (Kaplan-Meier), by age group · up to 15 years after AF diagnosis
- HR, age 30-50 years
- 2.96
- HR, age 50-70 years
- 1.84
- HR, age 70-85 years
- 1.53
- All P < .001
- Decreased cancer-free survival
Sensitivity analyses (excluding cancers diagnosed within first 3 months and after first year of AF onset, AF subtypes, multivariable Cox models)
- Confirmed consistent associations
Original publication
New-onset atrial fibrillation as a predictor of cancer: Insights from a real-world dataset. Heart Rhythm. Published 21 October 2025. doi:10.
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