Heart failure & cardiomyopathies
Performance of the Heart Failure Risk Scores in Predicting 1 Year Mortality and Short-Term Readmission of Patients
Authors' conclusion
Currently assessed risk scores have limited clinical utility, with fair accuracy and calibration in assessing patients' 1 year risk of death and poor accuracy in assessing patients' risk of readmission.
Study context
- Population
- Patients admitted with Heart Failure (HF), Fourth People's Hospital of Zigong, Sichuan, December 2016 to June 2019
- Participants
- 2,008 patients
- Exposure
- Seven HF risk scores compared for prognostic prediction
- Outcome
- All-cause mortality
- Follow-up
- 1 year
Methodological detailssingle-centre
- Single-centre
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
Discrimination for 1-year mortality
| Group | AUC |
|---|---|
| GISSI-HF | 0.822 (0.768-0.876) |
| Meta-Analysis Global Group in Chronic Heart Failure (MAGGIC-HF) | 0.819 (0.756-0.883) |
| Barcelona Bio-Heart Failure (BCN-Bio-HF) | 0.812 (0.758-0.865) |
| ASCEND | 0.802 (0.742-0.862) |
| Seattle Heart Failure Model (SHFM) | 0.787 (0.725-0.849) |
| GWTG-HF | 0.762 (0.684-0.840) |
| ADHERE | 0.757 (0.681-0.833) |
AUC
GISSI-HF0.822 (0.768-0.876)
Meta-Analysis Global Group in Chronic Heart Failure (MAGGIC-HF)0.819 (0.756-0.883)
Barcelona Bio-Heart Failure (BCN-Bio-HF)0.812 (0.758-0.865)
ASCEND0.802 (0.742-0.862)
Seattle Heart Failure Model (SHFM)0.787 (0.725-0.849)
GWTG-HF0.762 (0.684-0.840)
ADHERE0.757 (0.681-0.833)
- Deaths at 1 year
- 44 (2.21%)
Observational data: associations, not effects.
Secondary outcomes
28-day emergency readmission · 28 days post-discharge
- All scores similarly predictive; AUC range
- 0.609 and 0.680
Calibration for mortality
- Overestimation of mortality in all scores except ASCEND
Biventricular HF and ACEi/ARB subgroups
- Risk scores retained good prognostic discrimination
Original publication
Performance of the Heart Failure Risk Scores in Predicting 1 Year Mortality and Short-Term Readmission of Patients. ESC Heart Fail. Published 3 November 2022. doi:10.
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