Arrhythmias & electrophysiology

Predicting Major Adverse Events in Patients Undergoing Transcatheter Left Atrial Appendage Occlusion

Circ Arrhythm ElectrophysiolPublished Risk prediction model development and validation study

Authors' conclusion

A transcatheter LAAO risk model using National Cardiovascular Data Registry and LAAO Registry data can predict in-hospital major adverse events, demonstrated consistency across hospitals and can be used for quality improvement efforts. A simple bedside risk score was similarly predictive

Study context

Population
Patients undergoing transcatheter LAAO with Watchman FLX, NCDR LAAO Registry, US, July 2020 to September 2021
Participants
41,001 LAAO procedures
Comparison
Development vs Validation
  • Developmentn = 28,530
  • Validationn = 12,471
Outcome
In-hospital major adverse events (model prediction)
Follow-up
Median in-hospital
Methodological detailsregistry-based, random split development/validation cohorts, 1000 bootstrapped samples, forward stepwise logistic regression
  • Registry-based
  • Random split development/validation cohorts
  • 1000 bootstrapped samples
  • Forward stepwise logistic regression

Performance

As reported in the abstract

Model discrimination (C-index)
Test or modelC-index
Development0.67 [95% CI, 0.65-0.70]
Validation0.66 [95% CI, 0.62-0.70]

C-index

Development0.67 [95% CI, 0.65-0.70]
Validation0.66 [95% CI, 0.62-0.70]

Further findings

In-hospital risk-standardized adverse event rate (across hospitals) · median in-hospital

Median rate
1.50% (range, 1.03%-2.84%; IQR, 1.42%-1.64%)

Simplified bedside risk score · median in-hospital

Well calibrated; risk of in-hospital major adverse events for score 0 to 8
0.26% to 3.90%

Original publication

Predicting Major Adverse Events in Patients Undergoing Transcatheter Left Atrial Appendage Occlusion. Circ Arrhythm Electrophysiol. Published 23 February 2024. doi:10.1161/circep.123.012424

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