Heart failure & cardiomyopathiesDiagnostic or prognostic study
Prediction of incident heart failure in individuals without prior cardiovascular disease: the SCORE2-HF risk model
- Risk prediction model development and validation study
- 25 prospective cohorts
- sex-specific
- competing risk-adjusted
- external validation in three cohorts
Authors' conclusion
SCORE2-HF-a model derived, recalibrated, and validated to estimate 10-year and 30-year risk of incident HF across European countries-may enhance the identification of individuals at higher risk of developing HF.
Study context
- Population
- European adults aged over 40 years without previous CVD21,818 heart failure (HF) events
- Participants
- 611,778 adults · 25 cohorts
- Outcome
- Incident HF (model discrimination, C-index)
- Follow-up
- 10-year and 30-year risk
Performance
As reported in the abstract
Discrimination (C-index) in external validation cohorts
C-index, external validation cohort
.827 (.824-.829)
C-index, external validation cohort
.839 (.827-.850)
C-index, external validation cohort
.874 (.863-.884)
Further findings
Average 10-year HF risk, 70-year-olds, low-risk region, zero vs four adverse risk factors
- Men: zero vs four risk factors
- 8% vs 24%
- Women: zero vs four risk factors
- 6% vs 20%
- risk factors: smoking, T2DM, hypertension, body mass index (BMI) ≥ 30 kg/m²
Average 10-year HF risk, 70-year-olds, very high-risk region, four adverse risk factors
- Men or women
- 59%
Original publication
Prediction of incident heart failure in individuals without prior cardiovascular disease: the SCORE2-HF risk model. Eur Heart J. Published 11 March 2026. doi:10.1093/eurheartj/ehag154
Summarised from the published abstract; every number is checked against it