Arrhythmias & electrophysiology
Rising burden of atrial fibrillation relative to other major cardiovascular diseases: nationwide trends over 2000–2022 and projections to 2040
Authors' conclusion
AF has become the most frequently diagnosed and prevalent major CVD, with a growing burden surpassing HF, MI, and stroke in older adults.
Study context
- Population
- Danish individuals aged 20–94 years, national registries
- Exposure
- Atrial fibrillation (AF) vs heart failure (HF) vs myocardial infarction (MI) vs Stroke
- Outcome
- Incidence and prevalence trends of AF, HF, MI and stroke, projected to 2040
- Follow-up
- 2000 to 2022; projections to 2040
Methodological detailsregistry-based, age-period-cohort modelling with projections
- Registry-based
- Age-period-cohort modelling with projections
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
Incidence and prevalence, projected change by 2040
| Group | Incidence change | New cases | Prevalence change | Prevalent cases |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AF | 28% | 20 683 to 26 376 | 56% | 175 697 to 274 379 |
| HF | decrease by 2% | 52% | ||
| MI | decline by 30% | decrease by 3% | ||
| Stroke | decrease by 2% | 31% |
Incidence change
AF28%
HFdecrease by 2%
MIdecline by 30%
Strokedecrease by 2%
New cases
AF20 683 to 26 376
HF— not stated in the abstract
MI— not stated in the abstract
Stroke— not stated in the abstract
Prevalence change
AF56%
HF52%
MIdecrease by 3%
Stroke31%
Prevalent cases
AF175 697 to 274 379
HF— not stated in the abstract
MI— not stated in the abstract
Stroke— not stated in the abstract
Observational data: associations, not effects.
Further findings
New cases, age 65-94 years · 2040
- New AF cases projected to surpass combined new cases of HF, MI and stroke
Original publication
Rising burden of atrial fibrillation relative to other major cardiovascular diseases: nationwide trends over 2000–2022 and projections to 2040. Eur J Prev Cardiol. Published 24 February 2026. doi:10.
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