Heart failure & cardiomyopathies
Rising Trends in Obesity and Heart Failure: Related Mortality in the United States, 1999-2024
Authors' conclusion
Obesity and HF-related mortality have more than tripled, with persistent disparities
Study context
- Population
- US adults aged ≥25 years with deaths listing both obesity and heart failure (HF) as underlying or contributing causes, 1999–2024
- Participants
- 161,870 deaths
- Outcome
- Age-adjusted mortality rate (AAMR) per 100,000 for obesity- and HF-related deaths; trends as annual percent change (APC) and average APC
- Follow-up
- 1999 to 2024
Methodological detailsjoinpoint regression, CDC WONDER national mortality database
- Joinpoint regression
- CDC WONDER national mortality database
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
AAMR 1999
1.2
95% CI 1.1–1.2
AAMR 2024
4.5
95% CI 4.4–4.6
Average AAPC
5.3%
95% CI 4.9–5.7P < 0.001
Observational data: associations, not effects.
Further findings
| Outcome | Values |
|---|---|
| AAMR by sex | Men AAMR 5.0 · Women AAMR 4.0 |
| AAMR by race/ethnicity | Non-Hispanic Black AAMR 7.7 · White AAMR 4.6 · Hispanic AAMR 2.2 |
| AAMR by region and urbanization | Midwest AAMR 4.8 |
| Mortality by age | ≥65 years 13.2 |
- Mortality by age: ≥65 years rate in 2024
AAMR by region and urbanization
- Midwest had the greatest burden; rural areas exceeded urban ones
Mortality by age
- Highest rate in adults ≥65 years (in 2024); threefold increase in those aged 25 to 44 years
Original publication
Rising Trends in Obesity and Heart Failure: Related Mortality in the United States, 1999-2024. JACC Adv. Published 30 October 2025. doi:10.
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