Heart failure & cardiomyopathies
Risk Classification for Long-Term Mortality Among Patients with Acute Heart Failure: China PEACE 4YMortality
Authors' conclusion
By using readily accessible predictors, we developed and validated a risk prediction model to predict 4 year mortality risk among patients who were hospitalized with AHF and discharged alive. This model proved beneficial for individual risk stratification and facilitating ongoing enhancements in patient outcomes.
Study context
- Population
- Patients hospitalized with acute heart failure (AHF) in China and discharged alivepatients hospitalized for AHF
- Participants
- 4,875 patientsEvents: 2066 (42.38%) died within 4 years following admission
- Predictors
- 13 predictors: age, medical history of hypertension, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and HF, systolic blood pressure, blood urea nitrogen, albumin, high-sensitivity troponin T, N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide, serum creatine, Kansas City Cardiomyopathy Questionnaire-12 score and left ventricular ejection fraction
- Predicted outcome
- 4 year mortality
Methodological detailsMultivariate Cox proportional hazard model, internal validation
- Multivariate Cox proportional hazard model
- Internal validation
Model performance
As reported in the abstract
C-index
Development cohort
0.726(95% confidence interval, CI: 0.714, 0.739)
Validation cohort
0.727(95% CI: 0.708, 0.747)
Further findings
Point-based risk score stratification
- Low-risk
- 0-14
- Intermediate-risk
- 15-19
- High-risk
- ≥20
Survival time
- Median survival time
- 3.91 (interquartile range: 1.67, 4.00) years
Original publication
Risk Classification for Long-Term Mortality Among Patients with Acute Heart Failure: China PEACE 4YMortality. ESC Heart Fail. Published 17 March 2025. doi:10.
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