Heart failure & cardiomyopathiesCohort study
Serum Metabolomics Improves Risk Stratification for Incident Heart Failure
- Prospective cohort study (prediction model development and validation)
- UK Biobank
- elastic net models
- per-metabolite Cox models
Authors' conclusion
Serum metabolomics improves incident HF risk prediction over PCP-HF. Scores based on age, sex and metabolomics exhibit similar predictive power to clinically-based models
Study context
- Population
- UK Biobank participants
- Participants
- 68,311 participants · >0.8 million person-years
- Exposure
- PCP-HF + serum metabolomics vs PCP-HF alone
- Outcome
- Prediction of incident HF
- Follow-up
- Median ≈12.3 years
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
Incident HF prediction
PCP-HF + metabolomics
0.768
Harrel's C
PCP-HF
0.755
Harrel's C
Each group vs PCP-HFΔC (95% CI)
PCP-HF + metabolomics
0.013(0.004–0.022)
- PCP-HF + metabolomics
- continuous NRI 0.287 (95% CI 0.200–0.367)
- PCP-HF + metabolomics
- relative IDI 17.47% (95% CI 9.463–27.825)
Observational data: associations, not effects.
Further findings
| Outcome | PCP-HF + metabolomics | PCP-HF | Age, sex and metabolomics | ΔC (95% CI) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Age, sex and metabolomics model vs PCP-HF | 0.010 (−0.004 to 0.027) | ||||
| Harrel's C | Not reported in the abstract | 0.755 | 0.745 | ||
| −0.0200.020.04Difference (linear scale) |
| Outcome | Estimate |
|---|---|
| Age, sex and metabolomics model vs PCP-HF | continuous NRI 0.097 (95% CI −0.025 to 0.217) |
| Age, sex and metabolomics model vs PCP-HF | relative IDI 13.445% (95% CI −10.608 to 41.454) |
Individual metabolite associations with incident heart failure (HF)
- Metabolites independently associated, adjusted for age and sex
- 90/168
- Metabolites independently associated, adjusted for PCP-HF
- 48/168
Original publication
Serum Metabolomics Improves Risk Stratification for Incident Heart Failure. Eur J Heart Fail. Published 16 April 2024. doi:10.1002/ejhf.3226
Summarised from the published abstract; every number is checked against it