Valvular & structural heart disease

Sex-Specific Prognostic Value of Aortic Valve Calcium and the Risk for Aortic Stenosis: Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA)

Circ Cardiovasc ImagingPublished Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis

Authors' conclusion

The association of AVC with the long-term risk of incident AS was similar for women and men, further supporting the utility of AVC as a prognostic marker for incident AS.

Study context

Population
MESA participants with aortic valve calcium (AVC) measured using cardiac computed tomographyMESA participants with AVC measured, women comprised 52.9%
Participants
6,810 participants
Comparison
Whether the association of AVC with the long-term risk of clinically significant aortic stenosis (AS) differed for women compared with men
Outcome
AVC >0 present
Methodological detailsMESA, multivariable-adjusted Cox proportional hazards regression, median follow-up of 16 years
  • MESA
  • Multivariable-adjusted Cox proportional hazards regression
  • Median follow-up of 16 years

Main finding

As reported in the abstract

Further findings

OutcomeWomenMen
Incident AS cases · median follow-up of 16 years65 events75 events
Incident AS per AVC as a continuous variable (ln [AVC+1])
Hazard ratio (95% CI)1.91 (1.68-2.16)2.13 (1.88-2.41)
Incident AS, AVC ≥300
Hazard ratio (95% CI)134.9 (45.1-403.9)132.8 (6.2-274.9)
Incident AS per AVC as a continuous variable (ln [AVC+1]) — No interaction between AVC and sex
P =0.31
  • Incident AS per AVC as a continuous variable (ln [AVC+1]): interaction P =0.31

Incident AS, AVC ≥300

Women and men had similar adjusted hazards for incident AS across AVC categories

Original publication

Sex-Specific Prognostic Value of Aortic Valve Calcium and the Risk for Aortic Stenosis: Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA). Circ Cardiovasc Imaging. Published 9 April 2026. doi:10.1161/circimaging.125.018849

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