Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation 2 for Older Persons: 10 years risk validation, clinical utility, and potential improvement
An erratum to this article was published (Eur J Prev Cardiol, 14 Jul 2025 ↗)
Authors' conclusion
In a low CV risk country, SCORE2-OP showed notable discrimination and excellent calibration to predict 10-year CV risk, with better performance in females.
Study context
- Population
- Individuals ≥65 years without established CVD, primary care population of Barcelona (low cardiovascular (CV) risk country)median follow-up 11.8 years
- Participants
- 791 individuals
- Outcome
- MI, stroke and CV mortality
- Follow-up
- 10 years
Methodological detailsexternal validation of a risk prediction model, randomly selected primary care cohort
- External validation of a risk prediction model
- Randomly selected primary care cohort
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
SCORE2-OP Harrell's C-statistic, primary endpoint
0.706
95% CI 0.659–0.753
SCORE2-OP calibration, primary endpoint: underestimated risk in women (E/O)
0.77
SCORE2-OP calibration, primary endpoint: slightly overestimated in men (E/O)
1.06
Decision curve analysis: net clinical benefit across risk range, primary endpoint
7.5-30%
Observational data: associations, not effects.
Secondary outcomes
Primary endpoint plus HF hospitalization (secondary endpoint) · 10 years
- SCORE2-OP Harrell's C-statistic, secondary endpoint
- 0.692 (95% CI 0.649-0.734)
- SCORE2-OP systematically underestimated risk of secondary endpoint (E/O)
- 0.52
Valvular calcification added to SCORE2-OP (primary and secondary endpoints) · 10 years
- Change in Harrell's C (P = 0.017)
- 0.028
- Only variable that significantly improved 10-year SCORE2-OP risk performance
Original publication
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