Target trial emulation of alcohol intake interventions in young adults and risk of cardiovascular disease over 30 years: data from the CARDIA study
Authors' conclusion
This hypothetical intervention indicates no meaningful difference in 30-year CVD risk among abstainers, light, or moderate drinkers in young adults. Heavy alcohol intake may modestly raise risk, but estimates are imprecise with a range from no effect to a modest increase.
Study context
- Population
- Black and White young adults aged 18–30 at baseline (1985–1986), CARDIA study, followed 35 years
- Exposure
- Hypothetical sustained alcohol intake patterns
- Outcome
- Incident composite CV outcome
- Follow-up
- 30 years
Methodological detailsparametric g-formula, multi-site cohort
- Parametric g-formula
- Multi-site cohort
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
30-year composite CVD risk
RD (95% CI)
Abstaining
−0.4%(−0.6 to 0.1)
Light
0.2%(−0.1 to 0.2)
Moderate
0.7%(−0.1 to 0.9)
Heavy
1.3%(−0.2 to 1.8)
Very heavy
1.9%(−0.3 to 2.9)
- Overall CVD risk, all participants
- 8.7%
Observational data: associations, not effects.
Original publication
Target trial emulation of alcohol intake interventions in young adults and risk of cardiovascular disease over 30 years: data from the CARDIA study. Eur J Prev Cardiol. Published 4 June 2026. doi:10.
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