Arrhythmias & electrophysiology
The mC2HEST Score for Incident Atrial Fibrillation: MESA (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis)
Authors' conclusion
The mC2HEST score is a practical model for predicting individuals' risk of incident AF that may be used for guiding AF surveillance, resource allocation, and screening strategies.
Study context
- Population
- Population of different ethnicities (Caucasian, African-American, Chinese-American, and Hispanic) aged between 45 and 84 from 6 communities in the United Statessubjects included
- Participants
- 4,524 participantsEvents: 565
- Predictors
- mC2HEST score
- Predicted outcome
- Incident AF
Model performance
As reported in the abstract
C-index
10 years
0.72; 95% CI: 0.701 to 0.753
15 years
0.773, 95% CI: 0.749 to 0.798
Further findings
Reclassification vs C2HEST, HAVOC, HATCH, and CHA2DS2-VASc scores, respectively
- Net reclassification indexes
- 0.057, 0.090, 0.128, and 0.143
- Integrated discriminative improvement
- 3.2%, 3.9%, 5.7%, and 4.9%
Calibration
- Optimal calibration
- P = 0.41
Incidence of atrial fibrillation (AF) · 13.6 ± 2.5 years of follow-up
- Incidence
- 0.93%/year
Risk of incident AF by mC2HEST score points and risk groups
- Risk increased with higher score points and risk groups
- log-rank P < 0.001
Original publication
The mC2HEST Score for Incident Atrial Fibrillation: MESA (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis). JACC Adv. Published 10 January 2025. doi:10.
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