Prevention & lipidsCross-sectional study
U.S. Trends in 10-Year Cardiovascular Risk Scores Over 2 Decades
- repeated cross-sectional analysis of National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey data
Authors' conclusion
Among U.S. adults, 10-year total CVD risk increased over time due to population aging. Age-adjusted total CVD risk remained stable, with declining ASCVD risk driven by reductions in CHD risk offset by rising HF risk. Socioeconomic disparities in both CHD and HF risk widened overtime.
Study context
- Population
- U.S. adults aged 30 to 79 years, National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (1999–2023)
- Participants
- 26,980 adults
- Exposure
- Trends in PREVENT-based 10-year cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk across 10 continuous 2-year cycles (1999-2018)
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
Crude 10-year CVD risk · 1999 to 2000 vs 2017 to 2018
- increased
- 24.4%
Observational data: associations, not effects.
Further findings
Age-standardized 10-year CVD risk
- remained stable in both periods
- 5.4%
Age-standardized atherosclerotic CVD (ASCVD) risk
- declined from
- 3.5%
- declined to
- 3.3%
- P = 0.04
Age-standardized coronary heart disease (CHD) risk
- decline
- 10%
- from
- 2.0%
- to
- 1.8%
- P = 0.01
Age-standardized stroke risk
- remained stable
- 1.7%
Age-standardized heart failure (HF) risk
- increased
- 7.1%
- from
- 2.8%
- to
- 3.0%
- P = 0.01
CHD and HF risk by sociodemographic characteristics
- Reductions in CHD risk were more pronounced and increases in HF risk more modest among non-Hispanic White adults, those with higher educational attainment, and those with a higher income-to-poverty ratio
Original publication
U.S. Trends in 10-Year Cardiovascular Risk Scores Over 2 Decades. JACC Adv. Published 25 September 2026. doi:10.1016/j.jacadv.2026.103307
Summarised from the published abstract; every number is checked against it