Arrhythmias & electrophysiology
Validation of the ARIC prediction model for sudden cardiac death in the European population: The ESCAPE-NET project
Authors' conclusion
Our study showed that the previously developed prediction model in North American adults performs equally well in identifying those at risk for sudden cardiac death in a general North-West European population. However, the positive predictive value is low.
Study context
- Population
- General North-West European population; validation of the ARIC SCD prediction model
- Participants
- 9,988 vs 2,045
- Comparison
- Copenhagen City Heart Study (CCHS) vs Hoorn Study
- CCHSn = 9,988
- Hoorn Studyn = 2,045
- Outcome
- Discrimination (C-statistic) and calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic, calibration plots) for SCD risk
- Follow-up
- 10 years
Performance
As reported in the abstract
SCD prediction model performance · 10 years
| Test or model | Value | C-statistic | HL statistic | Sensitivity | Specificity | PPV | NPV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CCHS | 4.2% | 0.81 (95% CI 0.79-0.83) | P=0.8 | 89.8% | 60.6% | 10.1% | 99.2% |
| Hoorn Study | 0.81 (95% CI 0.77-0.85) | 1.00 |
Value
CCHS4.2%
Hoorn Study— not stated in the abstract
C-statistic
CCHS0.81 (95% CI 0.79-0.83)
Hoorn Study0.81 (95% CI 0.77-0.85)
HL statistic
CCHSP=0.8
Hoorn Study1.00
Sensitivity
CCHS89.8%
Hoorn Study— not stated in the abstract
Specificity
CCHS60.6%
Hoorn Study— not stated in the abstract
PPV
CCHS10.1%
Hoorn Study— not stated in the abstract
NPV
CCHS99.2%
Hoorn Study— not stated in the abstract
Original publication
Validation of the ARIC prediction model for sudden cardiac death in the European population: The ESCAPE-NET project. Am Heart J. Published 20 April 2023. doi:10.
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