Development and Validation of the American Heart Association’s PREVENT Equations
An erratum to this article was published (Circulation, 12 Mar 2024 ↗)
Authors' conclusion
PREVENT equations accurately and precisely predicted risk for incident CVD and CVD subtypes in a large, diverse, and contemporary sample of US adults by using routinely available clinical variables.
Study context
- Population
- US adults 30 to 79 years of age without known cardiovascular disease (CVD)25 derivation + 21 validation data sets
- Participants
- 6,612,004 adults
- Comparison
- Female vs Male
- Outcome
- CVD (atherosclerotic CVD and HF)
Methodological detailsindividual-level participant data, meta-analyzed, external validation, sex-specific, race-free, adjusted for competing risk of non-CVD death, Derivation: 25 data sets (N=3 281 919), 1992–2017, Mean±SD follow-up 4.8±3.1 years; 211 515 incident total CVD events
- Individual-level participant data
- Meta-analyzed
- External validation
- Sex-specific
- Race-free
- Adjusted for competing risk of non-CVD death
- Derivation: 25 data sets (N=3 281 919), 1992–2017
- Mean±SD follow-up 4.8±3.1 years; 211 515 incident total CVD events
Performance
As reported in the abstract
C-statistic for CVD, external validation
| Test or model | Value | Calibration slope |
|---|---|---|
| Female | median 0.794 (interquartile interval 0.763–0.809) | 1.03 (interquartile interval, 0.81-1.16) |
| Male | median 0.757 (interquartile interval 0.727–0.778) | 0.94 (0.81-1.13) |
Value
Femalemedian 0.794 (interquartile interval 0.763–0.809)
Malemedian 0.757 (interquartile interval 0.727–0.778)
Calibration slope
Female1.03 (interquartile interval, 0.81-1.16)
Male0.94 (0.81-1.13)
Further findings
| Outcome | Female | Male | Calibration slope | P value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ΔC-statistic, adding UACR, HbA1c and social deprivation index to base model (total CVD)Small but statistically significant improvement | 0.004 (interquartile interval 0.004–0.005) | 0.005 (interquartile interval 0.004–0.007) | ||
| Calibration slope with vs without UACR, marked albuminuria (>300 mg/g)Interquartile intervals | 1.05 [0.84-1.20] versus 1.39 [1.14-1.65] | P = 0.01 |
Atherosclerotic CVD- and HF-specific models
- Similar estimates for discrimination and calibration
Original publication
Development and Validation of the American Heart Association’s PREVENT Equations. Circulation. Published 10 November 2023. doi:10.
Composed by AI from the published abstract and checked against it. How Briefs are made →