Coronary disease & ACS

Patient-Specific Myocardial Infarction Risk Thresholds From AI-Enabled Coronary Plaque Analysis

Circ Cardiovasc ImagingPublished Multicentre prognostic cohort study

An erratum to this article was published (Circ Cardiovasc Imaging, Jul 2026 ↗)

Performance · MI by total plaque volume percentileResult — go to the resultHazard ratio 2.65 95% CI 1.47–4.78

Authors' conclusion

Per-patient age- and sex-specific distributions for deep learning-based coronary plaque volumes are strongly predictive of myocardial infarction, with the highest risk seen in patients with coronary plaque volumes in the ≥75th percentile.

Study context

Population
Patients undergoing coronary CT angiography; reference distributions from patients with stable CAD (5 cohorts)external sample n=1847
Participants
2,803 patients
Comparison
≥75th vs <50th percentile of age- and sex-specific total plaque volume
Outcome
MI
Methodological detailsinternational, deep learning-based plaque quantification, external validation
  • International
  • Deep learning-based plaque quantification
  • External validation

Performance

MI by total plaque volume percentile

Hazard ratio

2.65

95% CI 1.47–4.78

P = 0.001

≥75th percentilevs <50th percentile
HR 2.65 (95% CI 1.47–4.78); P = 0.001

As reported in the abstract

Further findings

MI, multivariable-adjusted (clinical characteristics, CAC, stenosis, plaque volume)

Adjusted HRs for ≥75th percentile of total plaque volume
2.38 to 2.50
Similar relationships for most plaque volumes

Plaque volume distribution

Plaque volumes increased with age and were higher in male patients
  • Reference distributions from 956 patients

Original publication

Patient-Specific Myocardial Infarction Risk Thresholds From AI-Enabled Coronary Plaque Analysis. Circ Cardiovasc Imaging. Published 30 September 2024. doi:10.1161/circimaging.124.016958

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