Valvular & structural heart disease
Predicting short-term outcomes after transcatheter aortic valve replacement for aortic stenosis
Authors' conclusion
Despite using a combination of detailed STS/ACC TVT Registry and electronic health record data, predicting short-term clinical and patient-centered outcomes after TAVR remains challenging.
Study context
- Population
- Adults undergoing Transcatheter Aortic Valve Replacement (TAVR) for AS at Kaiser Permanente Northern California, 2013–2019
- Participants
- 1,565 adults
- Outcome
- Prediction of 30-day outcomes: all-cause death, improvement in quality of life, all-cause hospitalizations, all-cause ED visits, HF-related hospitalizations, HF-related ED visits
- Follow-up
- 30 days
Methodological detailsprediction model development, integrated healthcare delivery system
- Prediction model development
- Integrated healthcare delivery system
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
- Risk of adverse 30-day outcomes, lowest (heart failure (HF) hospitalizations)
- 1.3%
- Risk of adverse 30-day outcomes, highest (all-cause emergency department (ED) visits)
- 15.3%
- Discrimination for death (AUC)
- 0.60
- Discrimination for quality of life (AUC)
- 0.62
- Discrimination for HF-related ED visits (AUC)
- 0.76
Observational data: associations, not effects.
Further findings
Individual predictors
- Society for Thoracic Surgeons (STS) risk score independently predicted only death and all-cause hospitalization
- Older age independently predicted only HF-related ED visits
- Race/ethnicity not significantly associated with any outcome
Original publication
Predicting short-term outcomes after transcatheter aortic valve replacement for aortic stenosis. Am Heart J. Published 11 November 2022. doi:10. 1016/ j. ahj. 2022. 11. 007
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