PREVENT and Pooled Cohort Equations in Mortality Risk Prediction: National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey
Authors' conclusion
The PREVENT equations provide similar risk discrimination values for mortality compared to the PCEs but estimate lower 10-year ASCVD risk.
Study context
- Population
- Individuals aged 40 to 79 years free of CVD, NHANES 1999–2004
- Participants
- 4,342 individuals
- Exposure
- PREVENT equations vs Pooled Cohort Equations (PCEs)
- Outcome
- Risk discrimination (Harrell's C-statistic) for all-cause and CV mortality
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
Risk discrimination for all-cause and CV mortality
- Similar risk discrimination for all-cause and CV mortality with PREVENT and PCEs
Observational data: associations, not effects.
Further findings
Classified as 10-year ASCVD risk >5% (5.0% threshold)
US individuals PREVENT ∼16.9 million · PCEs ∼27.5 million
Median
| Outcome | PREVENT | PCEs |
|---|---|---|
| Median 10-year ASCVD risk | 2.4% (IQR 1.2%–5.3%) | 4.0% (IQR 1.5%–9.9%) |
Lower atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk estimate with PREVENT vs PCEs
- All individuals
- 81.0% (79.4%-82.6%)
- Males
- 97.7% [96.6%-98.8%]
- Black individuals
- 89.6% [87.3%-91.8%]
Reclassification of PCE high-risk individuals (10.2%) to lower risk by PREVENT
- Reclassified to lower risk
- 96.2%
Original publication
PREVENT and Pooled Cohort Equations in Mortality Risk Prediction: National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. JACC Adv. Published 26 December 2024. doi:10.
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