Risk Prediction for Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease With and Without Race Stratification
Authors' conclusion
Results of this cohort study suggest that PCE performed well overall but had poorer performance in both BM and WM participants compared with female participants regardless of race in the REGARDS cohort. Removal of race or the addition of SDOH did not improve model performance in any subgroup.
Study context
- Population
- Reasons for Geographic and Racial Differences in Stroke (REGARDS) participants aged 45–79 years without atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD), with LDL-C 70–189 mg/dL or non-HDL-C 100–219 mg/dL at baseline (2003–2007)6,764 female [58.1%]
- Participants
- 11,638 participants
- Exposure
- Race-stratified PCE vs PCE without race stratification vs PCE without race but with social determinants of health (SDOH)
- Outcome
- C statistic
Methodological detailsbiracial cohort, Data analysed July 2022 to February 2023
- Biracial cohort
- Data analysed July 2022 to February 2023
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
| Group | Black female | Black male | White female | White male |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Model C | 0.71 (95% CI, 0.68-0.75) | 0.68 (95% CI, 0.64-0.73) | 0.77 (95% CI, 0.74-0.81) | 0.68 (95% CI, 0.64-0.71) |
| Model D | 0.71 (95% CI, 0.67-0.75) | 0.68 (95% CI, 0.63-0.72) | 0.76 (95% CI, 0.73-0.80) | 0.68 (95% CI, 0.65-0.71) |
| Model E | 0.72 (95% CI, 0.68-0.76) | 0.68 (95% CI, 0.64-0.72) | 0.77 (95% CI, 0.74-0.80) | 0.68 (95% CI, 0.65-0.71) |
Black female
Model C0.71 (95% CI, 0.68-0.75)
Model D0.71 (95% CI, 0.67-0.75)
Model E0.72 (95% CI, 0.68-0.76)
Black male
Model C0.68 (95% CI, 0.64-0.73)
Model D0.68 (95% CI, 0.63-0.72)
Model E0.68 (95% CI, 0.64-0.72)
White female
Model C0.77 (95% CI, 0.74-0.81)
Model D0.76 (95% CI, 0.73-0.80)
Model E0.77 (95% CI, 0.74-0.80)
White male
Model C0.68 (95% CI, 0.64-0.71)
Model D0.68 (95% CI, 0.65-0.71)
Model E0.68 (95% CI, 0.65-0.71)
Observational data: associations, not effects.
Parts of this Brief are withheld: the automatic checks could not confirm them against the abstract.
Original publication
Risk Prediction for Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease With and Without Race Stratification. JAMA Cardiol. Published 1 January 2024. doi:10.
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