Risk prediction of cardiovascular disease in the Asia-Pacific region: the SCORE2 Asia-Pacific model
Authors' conclusion
The SCORE2 Asia-Pacific algorithms have been calibrated to estimate 10-year risk of CVD for apparently healthy people in Asia and Oceania, thereby enhancing the identification of individuals at higher risk of developing CVD across the Asia-Pacific region.
Study context
- Population
- Individuals without prior cardiovascular disease (CVD) or DM in the Asia-Pacific region (four risk regions by WHO CVD mortality rates)external validation
- Participants
- 9,560,266 individuals
- Outcome
- Discrimination (C-index) of SCORE2 Asia-Pacific for CVD events in external validation
- Follow-up
- 10 years
Methodological detailssystematic recalibration of SCORE2, sex-specific, competing risk-adjusted, 13 prospective studies from 12 countries
- Systematic recalibration of SCORE2
- Sex-specific
- Competing risk-adjusted
- 13 prospective studies from 12 countries
Performance
As reported in the abstract
Pooled C-index, external validation
Pooled C-index
.710
95% CI .677-.744
Cohort-specific C-index range
.605 (95% CI .597-.613) to .840 (95% CI .771-.909)
Further findings
Estimated 10-year CVD risk across risk regions (50-year-old non-smoker, SBP 140 mmHg, total cholesterol 5.5 mmol/L, HDL-C 1.3 mmol/L)
- Men: low-risk to very-high-risk countries
- 7% to 14%
- Women: low-risk to very-high-risk countries
- 3% to 13%
- Estimated CVD risk varied several-fold across risk regions
Data for risk region-specific CVD incidence
- Individuals
- 8 405 574
- CVD events
- 556 421
Original publication
Risk prediction of cardiovascular disease in the Asia-Pacific region: the SCORE2 Asia-Pacific model. Eur Heart J. Published 1 September 2024. doi:10.
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