Heart failure & cardiomyopathies
Trends and projections of heart failure among adolescents and young adults: an in-depth analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021
Authors' conclusion
From 1990 to 2021, the youths and young adults of 15-49 years worldwide experienced escalating HF burdens marked by significant spatial heterogeneities and sexual differences.
Study context
- Population
- Adolescents and young adults aged 15–49 years, worldwide, 1990–2021
- Primary endpoint
- HF prevalence and YLDs: temporal trend
- Follow-up
- 1990 to 2021, projections through 2035
Methodological detailsage-period-cohort model, Bayesian age-period-cohort projections
- Age-period-cohort model
- Bayesian age-period-cohort projections
Primary result
As reported in the abstract
Global HF prevalence, age 15-49 years · 1990 to 2021
- Increase in global heart failure (HF) prevalence 1990–2021 (95% uncertainty interval 71.02, 83.33)
- 76.76%
- Growth, African region
- 2.67-fold
- Growth, Eastern Mediterranean region
- 2.63-fold
- Growth, South-East Asia region
- 2.00-fold
- Global HF prevalence in 2021, thousand (5968.4, 8317.3)
- 7048.1
Further findings
Sex differences
- Males consistently higher HF burden than females across all World Health Organization (WHO) regions
Underlying causes of HF
- Ischaemic heart disease the primary contributor to HF prevalence and years lived with disability (YLDs) worldwide
Sociodemographic Index (SDI) and HF
- SDI positively correlated with HF prevalence rate in 2021 and its percentage change 1990–2021 in specific WHO regions
Projected global HF prevalence · 2035
- Projected cases, thousand (5754.7, 10476.1)
- 8115.4
Original publication
Trends and projections of heart failure among adolescents and young adults: an in-depth analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021. Eur Heart J Qual Care Clin Outcomes. Published 14 June 2025. doi:10.
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